Germany 2006, World Cup Talk Cock Options

[CP]

Though not an ardent football fan, somehow or rather The World Cup always excites me when it comes around once every four years.

Maybe its the passion of the world's most popular sport that invoked this feeling, but I believe the actual reason may be actually due to the excitement of BETTINGS............

OK.Let me start with the big question on which nation shall prevail this time round.I shall start with a simple statistic based on numbers in which I believe many of you have read about it somewhere before; but if you haven't; should be pretty interesting.It calls on the magical number 3964,which will predict Brazil to be triumpant at Germany 2006.Here's how it works:


Argentina triumped at the 1978 and 1986 World Cup.Add 1978 and 1986 and you get 3964.

Germany won in 1974 and 1990, add the years and you get 3964 too.

Brazil won in 1970 and 1994, again it is 3964.

At the last World Cup in 2002 the winners are Brazil, but then again they also won in 1962 which makes it 3964 again!!

And so, using the same formula, the winner for 2006 shall be the nation that triumped in 1958 (3964-2006 = 1958) ; which is none other than Brazil.


So, money on Brazil, anyone?

[goldrush]

3964


Ang jee liao........Throughout Worldcup until Brazil get knockout!!!!!!!

[CP]

THE ODDS:

Brazil 3.25
England 7.50
Italy 9.00
Germany 9.00
Argentina 9.00
Spain 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 13.00
Portugal 21.00
Czech Republic 34.00
Sweden 41.00
Mexico 51.00
Ivory Coast 51.00
Ukraine 67.00
Croatia 67.00
Usa 81.00
Australia 81.00
Serbia & Montenegro 101.00
Poland 101.00
Switzerland 151.00
Korea Rep. 201.00
Paraguay 201.00
Japan 201.00
Ghana 251.00
Tunisia 401.00
Ecuador 401.00
Togo 501.00
Iran 501.00
Costa Rica 501.00
Saudi Arabia 751.00
Angola 751.00
Trinidad And Tobago 1001.00

Now, what does the odds tell you?That the number factor of 3964is to be taken seriously so much so that the payouts on Brazil winning is a paltry 3.25?It just does not make business sense to put my money on Brazil, but then again, for many of the world's football fans including myself,it is their favourite team.

Historical statistics again, it is also unwise to put your money on Brazil due to "The Continent Factor".What exactly is this factor?

"No European team has ever won the World Cup when it is held outside Europe; and no Latin American team has ever won it when it is held in Europe, except only once when Brazil won in Sweden in 1958"

And so, historically wise, you should pick a European team.But........think again.
1)Brazil has triumped in Europe before.
2)The last time it triumped, its in 1958 in which coincidently is also the 1958 + 2006 = 3964 number factor!!!!

Boy.............in two minds again.

[CP]

My conclusion.

Many a times we bet according to our heart and not our head.Given a choice to pick only one choice, Germany seems a lucrative bet offering payout of 9to1.
Yes, many may not have given Germany a chance; but who would have thought that hosts nation Korea made it to the semis in 2002?
And with Greece winning Euro2004, certainly with Germany lifting the cup this time round is not at all surprising.

Do not get me wrong.I am not saying that Germany stands a better chance to win.My head,my heart,and the statistics and omens points to Brazil.But, between a payout of 3.25 for Brazil compared to a payout of 9 for Germany, it makes a better business sense to put my money on Germany.

[goldrush]

With a payout 9-1,Germany would be my best bet

The Germans are reputable for their discipline,well grilled and famous comeback mentality.Currently this is a relative young team but with the following signs intact I believe they have a very good chance if they don't meet formidable opponents in their early rounds as history is on their side


Here's why

1)They are the home team.The last time they host in 1974...they won
2)The German is an European team on European soil ....cp already pointed out
3)But my strongest feeling comes from another nostalgic milestone in our TV broadcast.In 1974,the WC was the first to be broadcast in color in Singapore .32 years later this year we will be enjoying it in HD broadcast and coincidentally both times the events were held in Germany. The Germans took the crown in 74....The question is can they repeat it in 2006

your bet is as good as mine

[The Matrix]

i bet 3 countries to take the cup ... Brazil, England and ......








USA leh ...

[gohks]

i bet 3 countries to take the cup ... Brazil, England and ......
USA leh ...

who is collecting bet here?

[desireless]

Obvious who is the bookie...

He gave you his odds already

[CP]

The 'head to tail all matches eat' bet method:
(Tau kao buay chiak kiew)


OK.I've done my homework.

One of the popular betting system is the 'give ball eat ball' method.I need not explain further if you have ever betted before in football.Historically speaking over the last few world cups, if you were to punt on every match,and you 'chiak kiew' for each and every match, you are likely going to end up a winner in the long run.

That means to say that you bet on every 'weaker' team all the way from opening ceremony till the final.Chiak all the way.Over the last few world cups I have made a note; out of the 64 matches being played, you are likely to end up a winner (total wins less losses) of about 10 matches.That means to say that if you were to put $100 on each and every match, you are likely to end up $1000 richer.(Or maybe $875 to $975 taking into account the bookie's commission).

But you must be disciplined.You have to bet in each and every match.Even when its Brazil vs Saudi and the going market is Brazil give 1.5 ball, you still have to take Saudi.

My logic for this is simple - When form prevails, ie when the teams are playing to their expectations, you are likely to win half the time (50%).But when there is an upset or a drawn game, you pocket the money.Having up to 10 upsets or drawn games in the tournament is not at all surprising.

Game on, anyone?

[desireless]

I actually don't understand the "chiak" system. Do you mean buying the weaker team at the "handicap" game?

[CP]

I actually don't understand the "chiak" system.

Pang kiew chiak kiew.
The one taking a better team gives advantage to the one taking the weaker team.

Suppose its Brazil vs Spain and market rate Brazil give half ball.So you take Spain and 'chiak' half ball.If Brazil wins you lose,if its a draw you win and if Spain wins you win too.

Suppose its Brazil vs Korea and market rate Brazil gives one and a half (1.5) balls.So if you take Korea you 'chiak' 1.5 balls.
If Korea wins you win.
If drawn game you win too.
If Brazil wins by one goal (eg 1-0 or 2-1) you still win because Korea got 1.5 goals advantage.
If Brazil wins by 2 or more goals ( 2-0, 3-1, 3-0 etc) you lose.


Catch the ball?

[The Matrix]

A team with handicap of + balls is Eat (chiak)
A team with handicap of - balls is Give (pang)

If Team A vs Team B and a 1/2 Goal odds of 1.5 balls, any team with - balls means the team has an handicap of -1.5 balls. The said team will need 2 goal advantage to win the odds, else lost.

Eg :
Match 0066 AngMoKio United (H) vs Aljunied Rover (a)
AMK United -1.5
Aljunied Rover +1.5

Aljunied Rover will have won the handicap if the score is less than or equal to 1 goal advantage to AMK Utd ( 2:1, 3:2, 0:0, 0:1 ... etc )

AMK Utd will have won the handicap if the score is more than or equal to 2 goal advantage to home team ( 2:0, 3:1, 4:2, 5:3 ... etc )

This post has been edited by The Matrix: Sun, 04 Jun 2006 2:07 pm

[The Matrix]

Let say you took AMK Utd handicap, CP asked u "oui, wat u bet ?" ... simply reply " AMK pang kiew " ; AMK Give balls. Meaning u bet on AMK to win at least 2 goals advantage.

Well, the other very popular and "privatised" handicap gaming are the 1/2 balls, 3/4 balls ... More kick and more fun !

[gohks]

A team with handicap of + balls is Eat (chiak)
A team with handicap of - balls is Give (pang)

If Team A vs Team B and a 1/2 Goal odds of 1.5 balls, any team with - balls means the team has an handicap of -1.5 balls. The said team will need 2 goal advantage to win the odds, else lost.

Eg :
Match 0066 AngMoKio United (H) vs Aljunied Rover (a)
AMK United -1.5
Aljunied Rover +1.5

Aljunied Rover will have won the handicap if the score is less than or equal to 1 goal advantage to AMK Utd ( 2:1, 3:2, 0:0, 0:1 ... etc )

AMK Utd will have won the handicap if the score is more than or equal to 2 goal advantage to home team ( 2:0, 3:1, 4:2, 5:3 ... etc )

WOW! Matrix, besides being a goldfish Guru, looks like you also a seasoned punter

[gohks]

The 'head to tail all matches eat' bet method:
(Tau kao buay chiak kiew)
OK.I've done my homework.

One of the popular betting system is the 'give ball eat ball' method.I need not explain further if you have ever betted before in football.Historically speaking over the last few world cups, if you were to punt on every match,and you 'chiak kiew' for each and every match, you are likely going to end up a winner in the long run.

That means to say that you bet on every 'weaker' team all the way from opening ceremony till the final.Chiak all the way.Over the last few world cups I have made a note; out of the 64 matches being played, you are likely to end up a winner (total wins less losses) of about 10 matches.That means to say that if you were to put $100 on each and every match, you are likely to end up $1000 richer.(Or maybe $875 to $975 taking into account the bookie's commission).

But you must be disciplined.You have to bet in each and every match.Even when its Brazil vs Saudi and the going market is Brazil give 1.5 ball, you still have to take Saudi.

My logic for this is simple - When form prevails, ie when the teams are playing to their expectations, you are likely to win half the time (50%).But when there is an upset or a drawn game, you pocket the money.Having up to 10 upsets or drawn games in the tournament is not at all surprising.

Game on, anyone?

So who is the sucker here noticed most of the bookies are as fat as Laserguy's Ryukin

When we play this way, we are praying for an upset, which probability is usually very low